12 Trends Transforming the Post-Sec Landscape

The number of post-secondary students taking an online course has nearly quadrupled over the last decade to nearly 7 million students, with nearly one-third of all postsecondary students in the US taking at least one online course.  According to the 2012 Sloan C survey, more than 90% of public two- and four-year institutions offer distance learning opportunities to their students and 75% of academic leaders rate the learning outcomes in online education as the same or superior to those in face-to-face.”

That sounds like rapid change, but 2012 was an inflection point indicating more rapid and disruptive change to come.  Following are 12 trends that signal plunging enrollments for some third tier institutions and growing enrollments for new options.

1.Rapid growth in for-profit post-secondary from 1992 to 2010 (until federal legislation slowed the trend).

2.Expanded online learning offerings from traditional institutions; 90% of public institutions offer some online offerings.

3.Massively open online courses (MOOC) from new providers including Coursera, Udacity, and edX exploded in 2012.  About 12% of Sloan C surveyed institutions have or are planning MOOC participation.

4.The rise of very low cost DIY gen ed alternatives including StraighterLine, Propero, UniversityNow and free CLEP prep courses.

5.Rapid growth of informal online learning markets like Skillsoft and Udemy and learn-to-code sites like Bloc and CodeAcademy.

6.Expanding open education resources (OER) including Saylor.org, CK12, NROC, and Khan Academy.

7.Rapid growth in blended learning—incorporating online learning, social learning, and flipped classroom strategies into existing offerings.

8.Innovations in adaptive learning—combining adaptive assessment and tailored instruction particularly in developmental math including (e.g., ASU and Knewton)

9.High rates of unemployment making more expensive degrees less valuable in many job categories.

10.Alternative market signaling strategies including badging, certification, portfolio, and references are augmenting or replacing degrees in some job categories.

11.Competition is coming from new directions with more online course options, credit opportunities, and the unbundling of post-secondary services.

12.Wired students armed with mobile devices used to anywhere anytime options.

I’m thinking about what this means for professional schools–particularly engineering and medicine–where there is clearly more opportunity for online learning, but strong opportunity for differentiation with hands-on and apprentice-based learning.

Innovation.  There are (at least) six dimensions of innovation and potential differentiation: delivery, pedagogy, organization, matriculation, and business model

Delivery:

• low tech-traditional (most of US higher ed)
• tech augmented (1:1,  content on LMS)
• blended (mix of online and onsite delivery)
• online: instructor at a distance
• DIY

Pedagogy:

• lecture (most of US higher ed)
• interactive: problem and project based
• applied, hand-on training
• on the job, apprenticeships

Organization:

• discipline based (most of US higher ed)
• integrated (ASU is a partial example)

Matriculation:

• course-based (most of US higher ed)
• test out option (WGU)
• competency-based

Business Model

• pay for attendance (most of US higher ed)
• pay for premium services (tutoring, content)
• pay for certification (some MOOC options)